Happy New Year to all our valued clients and partners! As we enter a new year, we continue to navigate the complexities and opportunities within the global business landscape. In this edition, we’ll be exploring several crucial topics, starting with the global freight market in anticipation of the Chinese New Year closures and the looming USA port strikes—events that could significantly affect logistics in the coming weeks. We’ll also delve into the growing importance of hyper-personalisation in marketing strategies. With the power of AI, businesses can better understand their customers' needs and preferences, creating a more tailored buying experience that drives greater purchases. In this month’s regional highlight, we focus on Australia, taking a close look at our key trade options, the country’s importance in global trade, and the exciting opportunities on the horizon. Along with this, we’ll examine the latest economic data affecting the Australian dollar, including key Chinese manufacturing numbers and upcoming US Fed decisions—important factors as the AUD continues its recent decline. As we move through the holiday season, we also want to remind everyone of the role we all play in ensuring road safety. With travel picking up, it’s vital that each member of the supply chain takes responsibility in protecting people on our roads. Finally, we explore how trade compliance is no longer just a regulatory requirement but an area for business growth and branding. Companies who take a proactive approach to compliance are seeing it translate into significant long-term benefits. We hope you enjoy this month’s insights and look forward to supporting your continued success in 2025. As always, for more personalised solutions, please feel free to reach out to us at info@completeglobal.com.au
navigating global freight
The global freight market is kicking off 2025 with strong momentum, driven by robust demand and significant developments shaping shipping dynamics. Despite this promising start, shippers and carriers must navigate several challenges in the coming weeks. This blog provides an overview of key trends and considerations impacting the freight market in January 2025.
Strong Demand Drives Early-Year Activity China’s ports have witnessed remarkable growth in container throughput, with volumes increasing by double digits. This surge is largely attributed to shippers front-loading orders ahead of potential U.S. tariff changes under the new administration. Additionally, the pre-Lunar New Year rush is intensifying activity, with ports like Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland reporting record volumes. This strong demand is expected to persist through late January, providing a busy start to the year for global shipping networks.
Chinese New Year Factory Closures The Chinese New Year holiday, beginning on January 28, will bring widespread factory closures across China. Approximately 60% of suppliers plan to start their holidays a week before the official date, with 20% closing on January 28 and another 20% shutting down earlier in Week 3. Most factories will resume operations in early February, but a smaller percentage will extend closures until Week 7. While these shutdowns may cause a temporary dip in booking volumes, February is likely to see a rebound in activity as operations normalise.
Key Dates in Early 2025 Several critical dates are set to influence the freight market this month:
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January 15: The temporary suspension of the ILA port strike ends, with potential disruptions looming if no agreement is reached.
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January 20: U.S. Inauguration Day, marking the anticipated implementation of new tariffs.
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January 28: Chinese New Year begins, impacting supply chains through mid-February.
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February 1: The launch of the GEMINI and PREMIER shipping alliances, expected to alter vessel schedules and capacity.
Capacity and Operational Shifts The introduction of the GEMINI (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) and PREMIER (ONE, YML, HMM) alliances will lead to significant adjustments in shipping capacity. These changes include blank sailings, capacity downgrades, and increased reliance on feeder vessels at transshipment hubs. As these alliances reshape operations, temporary disruptions such as delays and inefficiencies are anticipated, particularly in Weeks 4 and 5.
Navigating Uncertainties in the U.S. Market Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and labour negotiations adds complexity to the freight landscape. The expiration of the ILA-USMX agreement on January 15 could trigger congestion surcharges if disruptions occur. Shippers are advised to proactively manage inventories and diversify supply chain networks to mitigate potential bottlenecks during this period.
Long-Term Trends and Market Dynamics Despite near-term challenges, the broader freight market is projected to experience steady growth in 2025. TEU demand growth is expected to stabilise at 3% for the year, reflecting a return to more balanced inventory levels following front-loading activities in late 2024. Meanwhile, fleet growth, led by MSC’s substantial new capacity, will outpace demand, offering opportunities for shippers to secure favourable rates in the long term.
Looking Ahead As the freight market navigates a dynamic start to 2025, staying informed and agile will be essential for businesses. With the convergence of strong demand, new alliances, and geopolitical factors, proactive planning and adaptability will help shippers maintain resilience and efficiency in their supply chain operations. By closely monitoring developments and leveraging opportunities, stakeholders can position themselves for success in a competitive and evolving global market.
Hyper-Personalisation: The Strategic Imperative for Business Success
In today’s fast-evolving marketplace, hyper-personalisation is emerging as a critical business strategy that will define organisational success in 2025 and beyond. Powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and real-time data analytics, hyper-personalisation delivers dynamic, customised experiences tailored to individual preferences and contexts. Unlike traditional personalisation, which segments customers into static groups, hyper-personalisation treats every customer as a unique “segment of one.” This approach is not merely a marketing trend—it is a transformative shift in how businesses engage with their audience, streamline operations, and drive growth.
From Mass Marketing to Precision Engagement
At the core of hyper-personalisation lies a customer-centric approach that transcends demographic or behavioural groupings. By leveraging advanced data analytics, businesses can anticipate customer needs and deliver highly relevant experiences at precisely the right moment. For example, an Australian retailer might recognise that a customer frequently browses during their evening commute and send a tailored product recommendation during that window. This level of precision fosters deeper emotional connections, enhances loyalty, and strengthens brand equity.
The Role of Technology
Technologies such as machine learning, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines, and AI-powered Customer Data Platforms (CDPs) underpin hyper-personalisation. These tools enable businesses to integrate customer insights, refine engagement strategies, and dynamically adapt communications in real time. For instance, AI-driven algorithms can modify email content based on user interactions, ensuring relevance and boosting engagement rates. This agility is key to staying ahead in a competitive landscape.
Tangible Business Outcomes
Hyper-personalisation drives measurable value across industries. Studies reveal that 91% of customers prefer brands offering tailored recommendations, and poor personalisation contributes to high customer churn. Conversely, companies embracing hyper-personalisation report increased customer satisfaction, higher retention rates, and significant revenue growth. Australian businesses adopting this approach have seen up to a 40% increase in average customer spend, proving that bespoke experiences are not just desirable but essential for profitability.
Transforming Operations and Supply Chains
Hyper-personalisation extends beyond customer interactions; it also revolutionises operations. AI-powered tools can forecast inventory needs, ensuring stock levels align with customer demand patterns and reducing waste. Additionally, logistics systems benefit from real-time updates, flexible delivery options, and tailored service offerings. For Australian organisations, aligning supply chains with customer expectations creates a seamless end-to-end experience, enhancing efficiency and sustainability.
Building a Future-Ready Organisation
Implementing hyper-personalisation requires a robust digital foundation and a cultural commitment to innovation. Cross-functional collaboration between marketing, IT, and operations teams is vital to ensure cohesive customer experiences. Leaders must champion investments in data infrastructure, such as CDPs, and foster a culture of agility that encourages experimentation and adaptation. This integrated approach ensures businesses remain resilient and responsive to evolving customer needs.
Competitive Advantage Through Differentiation
In a crowded market, hyper-personalisation offers a powerful differentiator. By delivering bespoke experiences at scale, businesses can stand out, foster deeper customer relationships, and secure a long-term competitive edge. For CEOs, hyper-personalisation is not merely an operational enhancement but a strategic necessity that underpins sustained growth and relevance.
Enhanced Loyalty and Lifetime Value
Hyper-personalisation also cultivates loyalty by consistently meeting and exceeding customer expectations. Tailored interactions transform one-time buyers into long-term advocates, increasing Customer Lifetime Value (CLV). Loyal customers not only return but also become vocal promoters, enhancing a company’s reputation and driving organic growth.
Improved Marketing ROI
Personalised campaigns consistently outperform generic ones, delivering higher engagement and stronger returns on investment. Australian organisations leveraging hyper-personalisation have reported up to 97% improvement in business outcomes, showcasing the power of tailored marketing to amplify reach and impact.
The Path Forward
As Australian businesses navigate a challenging economic environment, hyper-personalisation represents a pathway to stronger customer relationships, operational efficiency, and financial growth. Organisations that invest in understanding their customers at an individual level will thrive, while those that fail to adapt risk being left behind. By placing hyper-personalisation at the heart of their strategy, forward-thinking businesses can redefine success for the years ahead.
January economic data for the aud
The Australian dollar (AUD) continued its decline against the US dollar (USD), closing last week at 0.6217, a 0.55% drop. For the year, the AUD/USD has fallen nearly 9% from its 2024 opening level of 0.6810, marking its weakest annual close since 2020’s pandemic challenges. This downturn is attributed to various global factors, including the fiscal expansion policies anticipated under Donald Trump’s presidency, which are expected to boost US economic growth, inflation, and interest rates, thereby strengthening the USD.
A significant factor weighing on the AUD is the anticipated increase in US tariffs under the Trump administration. Tariffs on imports from countries such as China, Mexico, Canada, and the EU are expected to dampen global growth and reduce commodity prices, both of which negatively impact the AUD, given Australia’s export reliance on commodities. Additionally, the AUD’s status as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan (CNY) exacerbates its vulnerability. When the CNY weakens, typically by 2-3%, the AUD often falls 3-5%, highlighting the interconnectedness of the two currencies.
US monetary policy developments are further bolstering the USD. The Federal Reserve’s December meeting signalled a more cautious approach to rate cuts in 2025, reducing expectations from four to two 25-basis-point cuts. This contrasts with Australia’s Reserve Bank, whose dovish stance and larger projected budget deficits in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) report weigh on the AUD’s performance.
The market’s reaction to Trump’s election victory has been largely consistent with expectations, with currencies such as the AUD and NZD experiencing pronounced weakness. Both currencies remain highly exposed to the risks associated with US-China trade tensions. Trump’s pre-election indications of significantly higher tariffs on Chinese imports add uncertainty, with any increase above the expected 40% likely to exert additional downward pressure on the AUD.
Technical analysis reveals that AUD/USD broke below critical support levels in recent months, with a steep sell-off from a late-September high of 0.6942 to a double low of 0.6199 last week. While there is potential for a short-term recovery toward resistance at 0.6350-0.6370, failure to hold above the key 0.6170 level could open the door for a test of the psychologically significant 0.6000 threshold.
Looking ahead, the AUD faces headwinds from multiple fronts, including a weak Chinese economy, subdued commodity prices, and global tariff uncertainties. Analysts warn that continued AUD weakness could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decisions. A weaker AUD raises the cost of imports, potentially contributing to inflation, though the impact on services inflation—Australia’s primary inflationary driver—remains limited.
Economic events in January, such as China’s Caixin PMI data, Australia’s CPI and trade figures, and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, will play pivotal roles in shaping the AUD’s trajectory. While the AUD’s trade-weighted index shows some resilience, broader global and domestic challenges suggest continued pressure on the currency throughout 2025.
- January 3, 2025: Release of US ISM Manufacturing PMI data – key indicator of US economic health.
- January 5, 2025: Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures – highlighting inflation trends.
- January 10, 2025: US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for December – important for gauging US labor market strength.
- January 15, 2025: China’s Trade Balance data – providing insights into global trade dynamics and Chinese demand.
- January 16, 2025: Release of UK Inflation data – focusing on consumer price pressures.
- January 18, 2025: Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting – potential updates on interest rate policies.
- January 19, 2025: Release of Australia’s Labour Force data – critical for understanding employment trends.
- January 25, 2025: US Federal Reserve interest rate decision – significant for global monetary policy direction.
- January 30, 2025: Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) release – key indicator of domestic inflation pressures.
- January 31, 2025: Release of China’s Manufacturing PMI – highlighting industrial activity trends.
Disclaimer: This summary is for informational purposes only. Readers should consult their banking and finance specialist to develop strategies tailored to their business needs.
FOCUS australia
Australia’s trade landscape continues to evolve in response to global economic shifts, domestic policies, and the country’s strong export-driven economy. Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics highlights the complexities and opportunities in our trade balance, exports, imports, and investment flows. Here’s a closer look at the key developments shaping Australia’s trade profile.
Trade Balance and Economic Overview
In October 2024, the seasonally adjusted balance on goods increased by AUD 1,421 million, driven primarily by a 3.6% rise in exports of goods, including mineral fuels. Imports saw a marginal increase of 0.1%, led by processed industrial supplies. Australia’s balance on goods and services remains robust, with a surplus of AUD 54.8 billion for the 2023-24 fiscal year, underlining the country’s export strength despite global economic uncertainties.
Export and Import Trends
Exports of goods and services fell by 4.2% to AUD 659.4 billion in 2023-24, reflecting softer global demand for key commodities. However, imports rose by 5.0% to AUD 604.6 billion, driven by refined petroleum, road vehicles, and machinery. Notably, Australia remains the world’s largest exporter of coal briquettes, iron ore, and wheat, with significant trading relationships with China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Chinese Taipei.
Investment and International Position
Australia’s net international investment liability decreased to AUD 716.5 billion by September 2024, reflecting a decline from AUD 836.6 billion at the end of 2023. Foreign investment in Australia rose by AUD 62.8 billion to AUD 4.66 trillion, while Australian investment abroad increased by AUD 170.3 billion to AUD 3.82 trillion. These figures highlight Australia’s appeal as an investment destination and its proactive engagement in global markets.
Export and Import Composition
In September 2024, Australia’s top exports included metalliferous ores and coal, with Western Australia and Queensland leading in export volumes. Imports were dominated by road vehicles, petroleum products, and electrical machinery, with New South Wales and Victoria accounting for the majority of import activity. This diversification underscores the regional variations in Australia’s economic contributions.
Challenges and Opportunities in Trade
Australia faces significant challenges, including global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of shifting trade policies. The ongoing risk of deglobalisation, heightened tariffs, and fluctuating commodity prices pose potential threats to Australia’s trade position. However, opportunities exist in renewable energy exports, critical minerals, and expanding trade agreements that secure market access.
Building a Resilient Trade Future
The government’s “A Future Made in Australia” plan is pivotal in transitioning to a net-zero economy. Investments of AUD 22.7 billion in skills development, renewable energy, and industrial innovation aim to strengthen economic security and diversify exports. Initiatives like the Trade 2040 Taskforce further position Australia as a forward-thinking trade leader, incorporating stakeholder input to shape a resilient trade policy agenda.
The Path Ahead
With 18 free trade agreements across 30 economies, Australia’s trade framework supports nearly 80% of international trade. Continued focus on economic diversification, sustainable practices, and fostering strategic partnerships will ensure Australia’s trade sector remains a cornerstone of national prosperity. As one in four Australian jobs is linked to trade, bolstering this sector remains critical to the country’s economic stability and growth.
Conclusion
Australia’s trade performance in 2024 reflects its resilience and adaptability amid global challenges. Strategic investments, robust trade relationships, and a clear vision for sustainable growth position the nation as a key player in the global economy. By navigating complexities and seizing opportunities, Australia is building a stronger, more secure trade future for all.
The Importance of Embedding Trade Compliance in Your Company Mandate
Trade compliance is often viewed as a regulatory burden by companies focused on generating revenue and cultivating repeat customers. However, incorporating trade compliance into your company’s mandate is not just about adhering to legal obligations; it can also unlock opportunities, protect your business, and even contribute to profitability. In this newsletter, we explore why trade compliance should be a cornerstone of your organisation’s strategy.
1. Protecting Stakeholders and Reputation
Trade compliance ensures the protection of your customers, agents, staff, and directors by mitigating the risk of penalties and legal repercussions. Compliance demonstrates your commitment to ethical practices, building trust with stakeholders. Money saved or made by circumventing regulations is rarely worth the risk of damaged reputations, revoked licenses, and the potential fallout of non-compliance. By doing it right the first time, your company safeguards its future.
2. Enhancing Customer Trust
Embedding trade compliance creates a sense of security for your customers, reassuring them that your organisation operates within legal and ethical boundaries. Customers value partners who help them navigate complex trade regulations, reducing risks and enabling them to focus on growth. By prioritising compliance, your company becomes a trusted ally in their success.
3. Expanding Market Opportunities
A strong trade compliance framework opens doors to new markets. When your organisation is proficient in global trade regulations, it increases the confidence of partners and customers alike. Businesses are more likely to collaborate with a company that upholds compliance standards, knowing their own operations will not be jeopardised by association.
4. Building Trust with Global Partners
International partners value reliability and compliance. A reputation for adhering to trade laws strengthens relationships with global stakeholders, ensuring long-term partnerships. Cutting corners might yield short-term gains but often leads to eroded trust and diminished market presence over time.
5. Strengthening Government Relationships
Establishing a reputation for compliance enhances your standing with government authorities. This can lead to preferential treatment, faster approvals, and opportunities to participate in government-sponsored trade initiatives. A positive relationship with regulatory bodies is a strategic asset in today’s competitive global landscape.
6. Profitability Through Scenario Planning
Trade compliance is not just about avoiding penalties; it’s a tool for identifying profit-making strategies. By proactively analysing scenarios and aligning operations with regulatory frameworks, your company can uncover cost-saving opportunities and optimise its supply chain.
7. Upskilling Your Workforce
Compliance programs necessitate staff training, fostering a knowledgeable and capable workforce. Employees who understand the significance of trade compliance are better equipped to protect your company from risks. It’s essential for staff to recognise their personal accountability, as failure to comply can result in fines and penalties for individuals as well as the organisation.
8. A Whole-of-Company Approach
Trade compliance is a multifaceted discipline requiring collaboration across departments—from HR, Legal, and Sales to Logistics and Operations. While larger companies may have dedicated compliance teams, smaller businesses can achieve success by embedding compliance processes into everyday operations. Investing in these systems is a cost-saving measure that prevents hefty penalties and reputational damage.
9. Adapting to Regulatory Changes
The global regulatory environment is constantly evolving. Staying ahead of these changes is imperative for maintaining compliance. This requires vigilance and continuous learning, ensuring your organisation remains agile and competitive in dynamic markets.
10. Contributing to a Harmonious Global Marketplace
Trade compliance professionals play a pivotal role in upholding ethical business practices and fostering a transparent business environment. Every incremental success in compliance contributes to a safer and more efficient global trade ecosystem, ultimately benefiting all stakeholders involved.
Getting Started with Trade Compliance
For organisations new to trade compliance, the journey can seem daunting. Breaking it into manageable steps is key:
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Understand Obligations: Familiarise your organisation with its trade responsibilities.
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Assess Risks: Conduct a comprehensive review of your international trade activities.
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Address Gaps: Identify and rectify weaknesses in your trade practices.
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Develop Policies: Create a trade compliance manual to document and update processes.
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Train Staff: Equip employees with the knowledge to ensure compliance.
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Seek External Advice: Partner with trade experts to bolster your internal capabilities.
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Regular Reviews: Continuously evaluate and improve your compliance program.
The Bottom Line
Trade compliance is more than a legal requirement; it’s a strategic enabler for growth, efficiency, and trust. By embedding compliance into your business operations, you protect your organisation, foster strong relationships, and position your company as a leader in ethical global trade. Investing in compliance today ensures a sustainable and profitable future for your business.
Understanding the Chain of Responsibility in Transport Supply Chains
The Chain of Responsibility (CoR) is a cornerstone of Australia’s heavy vehicle regulation framework, ensuring all parties involved in the transport supply chain are held accountable for their roles in maintaining safety and compliance. Administered under the Heavy Vehicle National Law (HVNL) by the National Heavy Vehicle Regulator (NHVR), CoR mandates shared responsibility across the entire supply chain to prevent breaches of road transport laws.
Under CoR, responsibility does not end with the driver. It extends to operators, licence holders, registered vehicle operators, booking entities, consignors, packers, loaders, consignees, and even corporate executives. The framework is designed to encourage collaboration across all stakeholders to maintain safety, eliminate risks, and foster a culture of compliance.
CoR’s Scope and Impact
CoR’s scope is comprehensive, covering critical areas such as load restraint, mass management, fatigue management, speed compliance, driver health, and vehicle maintenance. Each party in the chain must take reasonable steps to prevent breaches of safety laws. For instance, consignors or consignees who impose impractical delivery schedules that encourage speeding or fatigue could face legal consequences for their actions.
The implications of CoR extend beyond the transport company. Any entity that influences or controls the transport process, including suppliers and clients, is part of the chain. For example, a company outsourcing goods transportation is equally responsible for ensuring compliance with loading practices and vehicle weight regulations.
Legal Obligations Under CoR
Every party in the chain must adhere to state-specific transport laws while complying with the overarching HVNL. For instance, fatigue management regulations differ by state, with maximum work hours ranging from 15 in NSW to 17 in WA. CoR ensures these variations are accounted for, demanding uniform accountability and safety practices regardless of jurisdiction.
Additionally, CoR requires businesses to implement robust safety management systems. This includes policies for vehicle maintenance, staff training, and compliance monitoring. Failure to meet these obligations can result in penalties, legal action, and reputational damage.
Key Players in the Chain
- Executive Officers: Senior managers and directors must exercise due diligence, establishing a safety-first culture and ensuring effective risk management systems. Their liability is significant in the event of breaches.
- Transport Operators: Responsible for managing operational risks, such as vehicle standards and driver fatigue, ensuring compliance with all safety laws.
- Consignors and Consignees: These parties must ensure goods are accurately described and safely loaded and unloaded.
- Loading Managers: Oversee compliance with mass and dimension regulations during the loading process.
Why CoR Matters
The introduction of CoR legislation reflects the recognition that unsafe practices often result from pressures exerted by multiple stakeholders in the supply chain. By assigning legal accountability across the board, CoR reduces the risk of unsafe driving, overloading, and other breaches that compromise public safety.
For businesses, CoR compliance demonstrates a commitment to ethical practices and corporate responsibility. It builds trust among stakeholders and strengthens the integrity of the transport sector.
Ensuring Compliance
Businesses must establish comprehensive policies and procedures tailored to CoR requirements. This includes:
- Developing and enforcing fatigue management systems.
- Regularly maintaining and inspecting vehicles.
- Conducting staff training on safety practices and legal obligations.
- Including CoR compliance clauses in contracts with supply chain partners.
Ongoing monitoring and auditing are essential to ensure adherence to these measures. Collaboration with suppliers and contractors to identify and mitigate risks further reinforces compliance.
A Shared Responsibility
The essence of CoR lies in its collaborative approach to transport safety. Each participant in the supply chain is both a contributor to and beneficiary of a safer, more efficient transport ecosystem. By embracing CoR, businesses not only safeguard their operations but also contribute to the broader goal of public safety and sustainability.
The Chain of Responsibility is more than just a regulatory framework; it is a call for collective accountability. For Australian businesses engaged in transport and logistics, understanding and implementing CoR is not just a legal obligation but a step towards fostering a safer and more sustainable future for the industry.
past insights
January Insights
