Welcome to the November newsletter! Its a huge month with the US Federal election, interest rate decisions and the start of the retail sales period. This month we look at freight rates in what is a quieter than normal peak season, current economic data that will impact the AUD, why you should bring scenario planning and analysis into your 2025 strategies. Our regional focus is on South Africa, even outside of any free trade agreement between the two nations. We break down Scope 1, 2 and 3 emission reporting for companies as well as product lifecycle management which is particularly important in respect to end of life and building a more circular economy. The Conference of the Parties (COP) 29, the United Nations Climate Change conference will be held in Azerbaijan from 11th November. Important awareness dates for November include Movember for Men's Health, Rural Health Month and the White Ribbon campaign seeking to eliminate violence against women. World Kindness Day is 13th November - and in an era where being nasty seems to come really easy - what can you do to be more kind? Diwali celebrations 31st October - 1st November. Remembrance Day 11th November and Thanksgiving celebrations in the USA 28th November. As always, for more personalised solutions, please feel free to reach out to us at info@completeglobal.com.au
navigating global freight
As companies work to secure stock ahead of Black Friday and the Christmas sales period, the global shipping landscape remains under strain. However, unlike in previous years, the current peak season is relatively muted. This is largely due to businesses moving shipments earlier in the year and the ongoing effect of subdued consumer spending in key markets, which has eased some of the traditional capacity pressures. Despite these factors, the scheduled rate increases set for 1st November are likely to hold steady in the near term, as carriers look to balance supply and demand by implementing blank sailings, effectively reducing the number of vessels in operation to counteract any drop in demand.
Schedule reliability continues to face disruptions, particularly due to severe weather events across Asia, which have caused delays at major ports and added pressure on alternative shipping methods. This has heightened demand for airfreight, with companies turning to faster options to ensure that stock arrives in time for holiday sales.
The upcoming U.S. election on 5th November is also impacting supply chains, particularly those dealing with high-value or sensitive goods. Some companies are fast-tracking shipments to minimize the risk of new trade barriers or policy shifts that could come with a change in administration. Different policy perspectives between the candidates on trade could potentially affect tariffs, regulations, and cross-border trade dynamics, making some businesses cautious as they prepare for potential post-election shifts.
In other developments, India has announced significant investments in its road and rail infrastructure. This initiative aims to stimulate economic growth by enhancing the efficiency of goods movement within the country, reducing logistics costs, and supporting India’s position as a growing hub in the global supply chain. Meanwhile, Canada has expanded its international air transport agreement with Australia, a move designed to increase flight frequencies and reduce barriers for goods moving between the two nations. This agreement is anticipated to enhance bilateral trade opportunities and create more streamlined logistics channels for businesses on both sides. Diwali festivities will slow trade as countries across the globe celebrate the Festival of Lights. Devastating flooding across Spain and Philippines at the end of October has resulted in loss of life and critical infrastructure. Our thoughts are will all of these areas as they deal with the aftermath.
scenario analysis and planning
In an era of rapid change, each new year brings a fresh set of supply chain challenges and successes. Early 2024 is no exception, with geopolitical developments, environmental shifts, technological advances, and legislative updates continuing to shape how companies navigate global and regional supply chains. Internally, businesses also face staffing transitions, as retirements increase and organizations look to bolster mid-career talent to secure future leadership. To stay agile, many companies are re-evaluating their strategies, and scenario planning is one powerful tool helping them to anticipate and prepare for the unexpected.
What is Supply Chain Scenario Planning?
Supply chain scenario planning is a forward-looking approach designed to prepare for various future possibilities. It enables businesses to proactively consider “what if” scenarios—ranging from minor supplier disruptions to major geopolitical shifts—and develop adaptive strategies. Unlike traditional forecasting, scenario planning focuses on uncertainty, exploring potential futures rather than predicting a single outcome. This way, organizations can maintain operational resilience, adjusting quickly to market, environmental, and internal changes.
The Importance of Scenario Planning in Supply Chains
- In-depth Analysis: Scenario planning helps businesses scrutinize possible outcomes, leading to informed and strategic decision-making.
- Proactive Problem-Solving: By identifying potential disruptions early, companies can implement preventive measures to mitigate impacts.
- Encouraging Diverse Perspectives: Scenario planning fosters different viewpoints, promoting innovative solutions and avoiding groupthink.
- Challenging Norms: This approach pushes organizations to think beyond established practices, encouraging adaptability.
- Early Warning System: It helps identify problems before they escalate, enabling timely interventions.
- Building Contingency Plans: Scenario planning equips businesses with backup strategies to act swiftly if disruptions occur.
- Future-Proofing: Unlike static forecasts, scenario planning enables companies to continuously adapt, helping them remain competitive.
Steps to Effective Scenario Planning in Supply Chains
A well-structured scenario planning process ensures thorough exploration and readiness. Here’s a guide to implementing scenario planning for supply chain resilience.
Task A: Define Objectives and Scope
Define the Objective (Task A1): Start by defining a clear objective for the scenario planning exercise. It could be a long-term vision, strategic goal, or specific target. This objective should align with your broader business strategy and look ahead three to five years to ensure relevance in a shifting landscape.
Identify Strategic Decisions (Task A1): Determine the strategic decisions or questions that require examination. For example, how might new geopolitical conflicts impact sourcing, or what legislative shifts could affect compliance? Establish the time horizon and geographic scope to make the scenarios practical and grounded in business reality.
Assemble the Planning Team (Task A2): Bring together a cross-functional team, including supply chain leaders, business unit heads, and external stakeholders. This diversity ensures that the scenarios reflect a holistic view, incorporating perspectives across the enterprise.
Task B: Identify and Analyze Driving Forces
Determine Key Driving Forces (Task B1): Identify forces affecting supply chains—internal elements like resource availability and external factors like regulatory changes. Prioritize these forces based on their influence and vulnerability to create a targeted approach.
Analyze Likely Truths and Uncertainties (Task B2): Examine key trends for each driving force and identify certainties and uncertainties. Engage with stakeholders to refine these insights, ensuring the scenarios remain relevant to all participants.
Task C: Develop and Test Scenarios
Create Potential Scenarios (Task C1): Using your driving forces, develop matrices to outline scenarios, varying two forces at a time. Aim for three to six diverse scenarios that represent a range of plausible futures, including high-impact, low-probability events.
Identify Scenario Signposts (Task C2): Collaborate with your team to create measurable triggers that indicate which scenario might be emerging. For example, a rapid increase in trade restrictions could trigger a scenario involving significant regional trade challenges.
Validate Scenarios (Task C3): Present these scenarios to the planning team, seeking feedback to refine each one. This peer review helps strengthen scenario credibility and applicability.
Task D: Refine Strategy Using Scenarios
Pressure-Test the Strategic Plan (Task D1): Work with supply chain leaders to evaluate if current initiatives support strategic goals across each scenario. This step is critical to ensure resilience under various conditions.
Create a Response Action Plan (Task D2): Based on the pressure-testing exercise, devise a tailored action plan for each scenario. Define clear timelines and assign ownership to ensure accountability.
Prioritize Cross-Scenario Actions (Task D3): Identify commonalities among response plans to streamline efforts and maximize response efficiency. Prioritizing shared actions ensures the most robust and adaptable strategy.
Continuous Improvement
After executing the scenario planning exercise, it’s essential to document key lessons and gather feedback. Tracking the accuracy of scenarios and refining the planning process over time will enable greater agility and better prepare your organization for the evolving landscape.
Final Thoughts
In today’s fast-paced environment, scenario planning is an essential component of strategic supply chain management. By preparing for multiple outcomes, companies can face uncertainty with a clear direction, backed by contingency plans and measurable indicators. With scenario planning, organizations can navigate shifts in geopolitical landscapes, legislative updates, and emerging technologies, ensuring they remain resilient and competitive, ready to turn potential challenges into opportunities.
november economic data for the aud
Just a few weeks ago, the Australian dollar reached its highest levels against the US dollar in over 18 months, nearing the US70¢ mark. This strength was fueled by a period of optimism, but recent data releases in the U.S. have dampened the Australian dollar’s momentum, bringing it back down to around 66.5¢.
This decline has largely been driven by a series of stronger-than-expected economic indicators from the U.S., including robust non-farm payrolls, lower-than-anticipated unemployment figures, and positive retail sales. These results suggest that the U.S. economy remains resilient, prompting a shift in currency value as investors weigh the likelihood of further tightening in U.S. monetary policy. This robust data has made the US dollar more attractive to investors, putting downward pressure on the AUD.
Looking ahead, the Australian dollar is not expected to see substantial gains over the coming week, as markets remain cautious amid the uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election. Key policy differences between candidates could significantly impact fiscal and trade policies, with potential ripple effects across global markets. Election promises, particularly those involving tax cuts or new tariffs, could increase inflationary pressures globally, which in turn may result in elevated monetary policies from central banks to curb rising prices.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is projected to keep interest rates stable until at least 2025, as it assesses inflation and economic growth within the domestic market. With Australian inflation showing signs of moderation, the RBA is adopting a cautious approach, prioritizing economic stability amid global financial turbulence.
Investors and businesses should continue to monitor developments closely, especially in relation to the upcoming U.S. election and its potential to impact markets worldwide. Given the current volatility, consulting with financial professionals, such as accountants or investment bankers, remains essential to navigate this uncertain period and tailor strategies to specific financial goals.
Key Upcoming Data Releases:
- 1 Nov: China Caixin Manufacturing Data – A critical indicator of China’s manufacturing sector health, which can influence the AUD given Australia’s trade relationship with China.
- 5 Nov: U.S. Presidential Election & RBA Interest Rate Decision – Both events could bring significant volatility to the markets. The RBA’s decision will shed light on its monetary stance amid economic headwinds.
- 7 Nov: Australian Trade Balance and Interest Rate Decisions from the U.S. and U.K. – A snapshot of Australia’s trade surplus or deficit, while U.S. and U.K. rate decisions could signal future economic trajectories.
- 9 Nov: China Consumer Price Index (YoY) – China’s inflation data, an indicator of consumer demand and economic stability, can also impact Australian exports.
- 13 Nov: U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY) – Key U.S. inflation data that may drive expectations for future Federal Reserve policy adjustments.
- 14 Nov: Australian Unemployment & GDP Reports from the Eurozone and U.K. – Australia’s labor market data offers insight into domestic economic strength, while GDP reports will reflect European economic health.
- 15 Nov: China and U.S. Retail Sales – These figures provide insight into consumer spending, a major driver of economic growth in both regions.
- 22 Nov: Eurozone and U.K. Manufacturing Data – Manufacturing health in these regions could influence broader economic expectations.
- 27 Nov: Australian Monthly CPI – Australia’s inflation data for the month, a key factor in RBA’s future interest rate decisions.
- 28 Nov: Australia CPI Release – Offering a more comprehensive look at inflationary trends within Australia.
This data calendar will be important in gauging potential shifts in the Australian dollar and overall economic sentiment. As always, we recommend speaking to your financial advisor, accountant or bank specialist for what actions will best suit your business.
FOCUS south africa
Australia and South Africa enjoy a robust trade relationship, underpinned by shared values, longstanding diplomatic engagement, and a commitment to regional and international trade forums. Despite the strength of their partnership, no Free Trade Agreement (FTA) currently exists between the two nations. In 2022, South Africa ranked as Australia’s 33rd largest trading partner, with trade valued at approximately $3.9 billion—contributing around 0.3% of Australia’s total goods and services trade. Key Australian exports to South Africa include aluminum ores, coal, wheat, precious metals, and specialized machinery, while imports largely consist of passenger vehicles, defense equipment, and vehicle components.
South Africa: A Vital Economic Partner and Regional Powerhouse
South Africa, Africa’s third-largest economy after Nigeria and Egypt, plays a central role in both African and global markets. As Africa’s only G20 member, it is a key participant in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), and the Commonwealth. South Africa’s commitment to multilateral trade is further highlighted by its involvement in the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), which it chaired from 2017 to 2019.
Culturally diverse and strategically positioned, South Africa boasts 11 official languages and three capital cities—Pretoria/Tshwane (administrative), Cape Town (legislative), and Bloemfontein (judicial). This diversity and its extensive natural resources strengthen South Africa’s role in both regional and global trade.
Economic Challenges and Renewable Energy Potential
South Africa’s economy has faced persistent challenges, with real GDP growth slowing to 0.9% in 2023 from 1.9% the previous year. High interest rates, cost-of-living pressures, and infrastructure issues—especially in energy supply—have weighed on growth. Unemployment remains high, with a rate of 32.6% as of Q2 2023. However, despite these hurdles, South Africa remains a crucial trade partner for Australia. The Australia Africa Chamber of Commerce (AACC) continues to play a vital role in fostering partnerships through trade missions, research, and networking opportunities.
A key area of growth for South Africa is renewable energy, particularly green hydrogen production. With vast solar and wind resources, suitable climate, and strategic ports infrastructure, South Africa is positioned to become a leading global producer of green hydrogen. Demand for green hydrogen, which was 93 million metric tonnes in 2022, is projected to reach 500 million metric tonnes by 2050. This emerging sector could contribute 3.6% to South Africa’s GDP and create around 360,000 jobs by mid-century, supporting both economic growth and global decarbonization goals.
The African Continental Free Trade Area: Opening New Opportunities
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) marks a transformative development in African trade, covering a market of 1.3 billion people and a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion. As the largest free trade agreement by number of member countries and population, AfCFTA aims to drive intra-African trade, attract investment, and boost economic resilience. While implementation has been gradual, AfCFTA’s full potential is expected to reshape trade dynamics within Africa and beyond.
Enhancing Bilateral Trade: A Path Forward
Australia and South Africa are poised to expand their trade relationship, particularly in renewable energy and sustainable innovation. With South Africa’s membership in AfCFTA and Australia’s trade expertise, the potential for collaboration on sustainable development and resilience is significant. The AACC plays an instrumental role in facilitating these links, helping businesses from both countries access new markets and drive economic progress across the region.
As Australia and South Africa continue to deepen their trade relationship, joint efforts in renewable energy and sustainable innovation offer promising pathways for future growth and resilience.
calculating scope 1, scope 2 and scope 3 emissions
An effective corporate climate change strategy begins with a comprehensive understanding of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Traditionally, companies have focused on emissions from their own operations, known as Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions under the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol. Today, however, there’s a growing recognition that a complete picture requires accounting for emissions across the entire value chain. Sustainability is not a one-time goal but an ongoing journey that encompasses all aspects of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) responsibilities. Here, we’ll explore Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, their importance, and effective ways to measure them.
Why Understanding Emissions Matters
Many of the world’s largest companies have carbon footprints comparable to entire nations. Research indicates that the top 100 corporations are responsible for more than 70% of global GHG emissions. Tracking and managing emissions is therefore crucial for any organization aiming to reduce its environmental impact and align with global standards, such as the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2050.
Understanding the Three Scopes of Emissions
The Greenhouse Gas Protocol defines three scopes of emissions to clarify where emissions originate and guide companies in identifying areas for reduction.
Scope 1: Direct Emissions from Owned or Controlled Sources
Scope 1 emissions are direct GHG emissions from sources a company owns or controls, such as emissions from on-site combustion, company-owned vehicles, or specific industrial processes. Common examples include exhaust emissions from company vehicles or fuel combustion in boilers and furnaces.
- Calculation: To measure Scope 1 emissions, companies track fuel consumption within controlled assets and apply emissions factors based on the type of fuel (e.g., diesel, gasoline). These emissions factors vary depending on the equipment used.
- Reduction Strategies: Companies can reduce Scope 1 emissions by upgrading to energy-efficient equipment, switching to lower-carbon fuels, or adopting electric and hybrid vehicles.
Scope 2: Indirect Emissions from Purchased Energy
Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions resulting from purchased electricity, steam, heat, or cooling. These emissions are produced at the power generation site rather than at the location where the energy is consumed.
- Calculation: Scope 2 emissions are calculated by multiplying energy usage by an emissions factor for the energy source, with renewable sources (e.g., wind, solar) typically having lower emission factors than fossil fuels.
- Reduction Strategies: Companies can minimize Scope 2 emissions by using renewable energy sources, reducing overall energy use, and investing in carbon offsets.
Scope 3: All Other Indirect Emissions
Scope 3 emissions encompass all other indirect emissions not included in Scope 2 and arise from sources outside the organization’s direct control. These emissions often constitute the largest portion of a company’s footprint and include emissions from the production of goods, business travel, employee commuting, waste disposal, and the use of sold products.
- Calculation: Measuring Scope 3 emissions is complex, requiring data from suppliers, customer usage data, and estimation methods. Scope 3 includes 15 categories, from upstream emissions related to purchased goods to downstream emissions from product disposal.
- Reduction Strategies: Effective Scope 3 management involves working closely with suppliers, prioritizing sustainable materials, reducing waste, and designing products for longevity and recyclability.
Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming Potential (GWP)
Different GHGs vary in their Global Warming Potential (GWP), which measures the warming effect of each gas relative to carbon dioxide (CO₂) over a specific period. For example:
- Methane (CH₄), with a GWP of 27.9 over 100 years, is significantly more potent than CO₂.
- Nitrous oxide (N₂O) has a GWP of 273 over the same period, highlighting its severe warming impact despite lower atmospheric concentrations.
Understanding GWP is crucial in calculating emissions accurately, as it highlights which gases contribute most to global warming.
Mitigating Emissions Across Scopes: Strategies and Benefits
Mitigation strategies vary by emission scope:
- Scope 1: Prioritize fuel-efficient technologies and alternative fuel sources.
- Scope 2: Transition to renewable energy sources and implement energy efficiency improvements.
- Scope 3: Work with suppliers to source sustainably, reduce emissions from transportation, and encourage circular economy practices.
Adhering to Regulatory Standards
In many regions, companies are required to disclose their emissions according to standardized frameworks such as the GHG Protocol. Compliance not only ensures transparency but also enhances a company’s credibility in sustainability efforts. With an increased emphasis on ESG standards globally, transparent reporting on Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions is quickly becoming an industry norm.
Conclusion
Calculating and managing Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions provides companies with a holistic view of their environmental impact, paving the way for effective climate action. By understanding the sources and complexities of these emissions, businesses can set actionable goals, reduce their carbon footprint, and align with both regulatory requirements and global sustainability targets.
product lifecycle management
In today’s market, a product’s success goes far beyond design and functionality. Companies must account for every phase of the product’s journey, from development and production to disposal and beyond. This comprehensive approach, known as Product Lifecycle Management (PLM), is essential to stay competitive in an ever-evolving market landscape and aligns with the principles of the circular economy, where products and materials remain in use for as long as possible. Together, PLM and the circular economy offer a framework to reduce waste, enhance product value, and respond to global challenges like climate change.
The 7 Stages of Product Lifecycle Management
PLM organizes the lifecycle into seven distinct stages, each playing a critical role in ensuring the product’s success, both commercially and sustainably:
Idea Generation and Management – Sparked by customer feedback, market research, or emerging trends, ideas are gathered, evaluated, and filtered, setting the groundwork for impactful product development.
Research and Analytics – Data-driven insights help refine product ideas to meet consumer needs and identify market opportunities.
Planning – Structured planning aligns teams on objectives, timelines, and resources, ensuring the product is viable both financially and operationally.
Prototyping – Rapid prototype development tests concepts in real-world conditions, allowing for refinements before full-scale production.
Validation – Before launch, rigorous testing ensures quality and functionality, minimizing the risk of post-launch issues.
Delivery – The focus here shifts to preparing the product for launch, including production, packaging, and distribution strategies.
Launch – Marketing and sales efforts introduce the product to the market, setting the stage for its growth and eventual maturation.
Following these stages effectively helps to meet business goals and sustain competitive advantage. But managing the lifecycle doesn’t end at launch. As the product evolves through growth, maturity, and decline phases, a strategic PLM approach is necessary to ensure its value is maximized and its environmental impact minimized.
PLM’s Role in the Circular Economy
The circular economy transforms the traditional linear model of “take, make, dispose” into one where products, components, and materials circulate within the economy. The European Commission’s Circular Economy Action Plan (CEAP), launched in 2020, emphasizes the need for sustainable growth and resource efficiency through circular business models. This model calls for an entire reevaluation of how products are designed, manufactured, used, and recycled.
PLM aligns with the circular economy by addressing three primary areas:
Process – PLM supports a closed-loop value chain, enabling manufacturers to design products with end-of-life considerations, such as recyclability or biodegradability. By tracking and managing materials across production cycles, companies can reduce costs and create predictable, sustainable supply chains.
Lifecycle Extension – Extending product life through design and post-launch services like repair, refurbishment, and remarketing helps products retain value over time. Modular designs and easily repairable parts enable companies to focus on durability, while PLM tools help manage maintenance and upgrade schedules to keep products functioning effectively.
Service – A Product-as-a-Service (PaaS) model encourages companies to retain ownership of their products and offer services instead of outright sales. This shift reduces material consumption and incentivizes the production of high-quality, durable goods that are easier to reuse, refurbish, or recycle.
Emerging Technologies Powering PLM and Circular Economy
Recent advances in digital technologies are enhancing PLM, making circularity more attainable for manufacturers. Cloud-based PLM systems, big data, AI, and the Internet of Things (IoT) facilitate real-time data analysis, enabling more informed decisions about product design, sourcing, and customer needs. These technologies not only streamline product development but also improve communication across departments and with supply chain partners. For instance, AI can detect patterns in customer feedback, helping companies refine their products while minimizing waste and resource use.
Blockchain also supports PLM and circularity by ensuring transparent, traceable supply chains. By tracking a product’s origin and journey, companies can verify that materials are sourced responsibly and adhere to sustainability standards, strengthening consumer trust and brand loyalty.
PLM: Driving Business Benefits Through Circularity
By integrating PLM with circular economy principles, businesses can achieve significant advantages, including:
Faster Time-to-Market – Streamlined processes reduce delays in development and launch phases, helping companies capture market opportunities quickly.
Reduced Costs and Waste – Focus on part reuse and modular design lowers production costs and minimizes environmental impact, fostering resource efficiency.
Enhanced Customer Engagement – Direct access to customer feedback and product usage data enables companies to adjust strategies, enhancing satisfaction and product relevance.
Scalability and Flexibility – Cloud-based PLM platforms offer scalability, ensuring that as product portfolios grow, lifecycle management adapts seamlessly to support expanding circular goals.
Sustainable Product Design – PLM platforms enable visibility into sourcing information, making it easier to integrate eco-friendly materials and sustainable design principles from the start.
Embracing the Future of PLM and Circularity
Transitioning to a circular economy requires innovative thinking, collaboration, and commitment from every player in the value chain. With PLM as the backbone, companies can drive a more sustainable approach to product management, supporting long-term growth, environmental stewardship, and resource conservation. By embracing the latest technologies and the circular principles, businesses can not only enhance their competitive advantage but also contribute meaningfully to a resilient, circular economy.
past insights
November Insights
